Finance Friday - Nigeria’s Economic Resilience Amid Global Shifts
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Market Overview
Good evening and welcome to your Friday market wrap up. Nigeria shows strong economic progress with bond auctions, rising oil output goals, and record-high foreign reserves. Corporate activity is lively despite NNPC’s profit challenges. Globally, markets respond to trade tensions, central bank policies, and geopolitical risks, with oil prices holding steady and currencies showing cautious optimism.
Nigerian News & Market Update
FG to raise ₦200billion via bond auction:
The Debt Management Office (DMO) has launched a ₦200 billion bond offering, including a reopened June 2032 bond at 17.95% and a new five-year bond without a set rate yet. Earlier in August, savings bonds were issued with rates up to 15.401%. Investor demand remains strong, especially for long-term bonds. FGN bonds are tax-free, low-risk, and offer steady returns with a minimum investment of ₦5,000. - Punch
Nigeria on track to hit 2.5mbpd oil output — FG:
The Federal Government plans to raise crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026 through deepwater development, revived dormant fields, and faster project approvals. Current output has already increased to 1.8 million bpd. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has also completed a review of marginal field licenses due for renewal, with approvals to be based on performance and milestone achievements. - Punch
External reserves climb to 44-month high of $41billion:
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $41 billion on August 19, 2025, the highest in over 44 months, signaling a strong recovery after years of decline. The reserves have grown by $1.46 billion in August alone, mainly due to improved foreign exchange inflows from oil revenues, capital inflows, and reduced imports. This boost strengthens the Central Bank's ability to stabilize the naira, manage liquidity, and improve investor confidence. - Punch
Beer maker Champion Breweries strikes deal to acquire Bullet drink:
Champion Breweries is set to acquire the Bullet drink brand to expand into energy drinks and other products. The deal, pending regulatory approval, will give Champion majority control of the brand. This acquisition follows a recent capital raise and comes as the company reports improved financial performance in 2025. - Premiumtimes
NNPC profit after tax plunges 80% in July under cost pressures:
NNPC Limited reported a sharp 79.6% drop in profit after tax to ₦185 billion in July 2025, down from ₦905 billion in June, mainly due to higher costs and tax adjustments despite stable production and revenue. Crude oil and gas production slightly increased, and sales volumes rose, but profit was impacted by rising expenses. The company continues to advance key gas pipeline projects and maintain fuel availability, while its foundation supports social initiatives. The July figures are provisional and subject to final review. - BusinessDay
Nigeria Sectoral Indices Performance
The table below shows that the NGX Insurance Index leads across most periods, especially QTD and YTD. Conversely, the Oil/Gas sector remains weak, being the only one in the red YTD. The market showed a mixed 1-day performance, but weekly returns are mostly negative.
Fixed Income (FGN Bonds)
Global News & Market Update
US tariffs behind surge in global arabica prices, Brazil exporters group says:
Arabica coffee prices rose over 30% in August after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, disrupting exports and creating market uncertainty. Brazil's coffee crop is also underperforming, with lower yields and frost damage. Importers are turning to other regions, while European and Asian demand for Brazilian coffee has increased. - Reuters
Hungary to leave base rate on hold at 6.5% again despite sputtering economy:
Hungary’s central bank is expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 11th month, despite slow economic growth, due to inflation remaining above its 2–4% target range. All surveyed analysts predict no rate change at the upcoming meeting, though some expect a 25-basis-point cut by year-end. The bank sees inflation averaging 4.7% in 2025 and reaching its 3% target only by early 2027. While inflation has eased slightly, high energy and food prices, along with external uncertainties, are prompting a cautious monetary stance. - Reuters
Dollar drops as Powell signals possible September rate cut:
The U.S. dollar fell sharply after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible interest rate cut in September without making a firm commitment. His dovish tone, especially about rising risks in the labor market, boosted market expectations of a cut, with traders now seeing an 89% chance. The dollar index dropped 0.89%, while the euro and yen strengthened. Concerns over Fed independence also weighed on the dollar after Donald Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Meanwhile, other currencies and bitcoin gained as markets reacted to the potential policy shift. - Reuters
India approaching U.S. trade issue with "very open mind", minister says:
India's Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said the country will approach its trade relationship with the U.S. "with a very open mind," amid rising tensions over new U.S. tariffs. The U.S. is imposing up to 50% duties on Indian imports, citing India's increased Russian oil purchases. Trade talks between the two nations have stalled, especially over India's refusal to open its agricultural and dairy sectors. A planned U.S. trade delegation visit was canceled, and India remains firm on protecting its farmers' interests. Goyal also emphasized that improving ties with China is separate from U.S. trade issues. - Reuters
Oil prices set for weekly gain as Ukraine peace process stalls:
Oil prices rose on Friday amid fading hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and strong U.S. crude stockpile drawdowns, putting prices on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks. Brent crude reached $67.85 and WTI climbed to $63.77. Tensions remain high as Russia continues attacks and Ukraine targets key Russian oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump is attempting to broker peace, but no summit is scheduled. Oil prices were also supported by a 6 million barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories, though weak German economic data capped gains. Markets are watching for signals of a potential Fed rate cut. - Reuters
Japan to ramp up bond interest rate assumption for next annual budget, Yomiuri reports:
Japan's Finance Ministry plans to raise its assumed long-term interest rate to 2.6% for the 2026/27 budget—the highest in 17 years—leading to higher debt-servicing costs. With public debt over twice the size of its economy and rising social welfare and defense spending, total ministry budget requests may hit a record ¥120 trillion, including about ¥30 trillion for debt payments. - Reuters
Indices, Commodities & Currencies
The table below Depicts Global stocks surged, led by the Russell 2000 and DJIA, while volatility (VIX) dropped sharply. Energy prices mostly rose, except natural gas, which fell. Soft commodities like cocoa and orange juice gained; metals declined across the board. Soybean oil led gains in grains. The USD slightly weakened, while EUR, AUD, and NZD strengthened.
Fixed Income (USA Bonds)
Events
Conclusion
In conclusion, Nigeria’s proactive measures in boosting bond sales and expanding oil output, coupled with a robust recovery in external reserves, signal growing economic stability. However, challenges such as NNPC’s profit dip underscore ongoing cost pressures. On the global stage, trade tensions and central bank policies continue to influence commodity prices and currency flows, creating both risks and opportunities for investors. As the market braces for potential interest rate shifts and monitors geopolitical developments, staying informed is crucial to capitalizing on emerging trends. We look forward to bringing you more insights as these stories evolve.
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