Think Thursday - Nigeria’s Market Reforms and FX Reserves Strengthen Outlook as Global Trade Deals and Rate Moves Shape Sentiment
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Market Overview
Good evening and welcome to today’s Market kick off. Global and local markets are navigating a dynamic mix of macroeconomic news and policy developments. In Nigeria, the market spotlight is on regulatory reforms, strategic corporate moves, and a capital market poised for significant growth under the upcoming ISA 2025. The naira saw a modest rebound, supported by rising FX reserves, while sector indices showed mixed performance, with insurance stocks leading year-to-date gains. Globally, trade diplomacy and shifting investment flows are shaping market sentiment, with Europe attracting more hedge fund inflows and the EU-U.S. trade agreement easing tensions.
Nigerian News & Market Update
Access Holdings announces exit of non-executive director:
Roosevelt Ogbonna has resigned as a non-executive director from the board of Access Holdings Plc after three and a half years to comply with the Central Bank of Nigeria's 2023 Corporate Governance Guidelines, which limit financial holding company boards to nine directors. He remains the Managing Director/CEO of Access Bank Plc, a subsidiary of Access Holdings. The company expressed appreciation for his service. - Punch
Aradel aligns growth with FG’s domestic gas supply agenda:
Aradel Holdings Plc, through its subsidiary Aradel Gas Limited, has signed a Gas Supply Agreement with Nigeria LNG via the Shell Nigeria Gas and NNPC Gas Marketing Limited partnership. This move supports the Federal Government’s gas reforms and energy transition agenda. Aradel emphasized its ongoing investment in gas infrastructure, including a 100 million scf/day processing plant, and noted its long-standing commitment to cleaner energy and elimination of gas flaring. The agreement aligns with the company’s growth strategy and national goals for domestic gas supply and industrial development. - Punch
Excess Funds in Banking System Keeps Rates Lower:
Excess liquidity in Nigeria’s banking system pushed short-term interest rates lower, despite CBN’s efforts to tighten funds through a ₦300 billion Open Market Operations (OMO) auction. Liquidity rose to ₦2.578 trillion, causing money market rates to drop below 27%. Interbank and treasury yields showed mixed movements, while weak investor sentiment persisted in the NT-Bills market. Meanwhile, the Nigerian Exchange Index gained ₦203 billion. - dmarketforces
Naira rebounds after two days of losses as reserves cross $41bn:
The naira gained slightly to ₦1,537.07/$ at the official market on Wednesday, supported by Nigeria’s external reserves rising above $41 billion for the first time since 2021. Reserves grew 12.4% year-on-year, strengthening the CBN’s ability to defend the currency. FX inflows rose 24% in July to $3.8 billion, driven mainly by foreign portfolio investments, though market volatility persists. - Businessday
ISA 2025 Nigeria’s Capital Market Set to Hit ₦300 Trillion SEC DG Agama to Tinubu:
Nigeria’s capital market is set for major growth with the Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2025, which aims to drive the market toward a ₦300 trillion valuation. The law introduces stronger investor protection, regulatory clarity, and recognition of digital assets, while attracting foreign investment and expanding financial products. Backed by President Tinubu’s reform agenda, SEC and NGX leaders are pushing for state-owned listings, tax incentives, and digital innovation to position Nigeria as Africa’s top investment hub. - Nairametrics
Nigeria Sectoral Indices Performance
The table below shows that Most NGX sector indices fell on the day, led by declines in Banking (-1.41%) and Consumer Goods (-1.03%), while Insurance was the standout gainer with 81.56% YTD growth. Despite short-term weakness, overall market performance remains strong, with NSE ASI up 36.56% YTD; only Oil/Gas is negative year-to-date.
Fixed Income (FGN Bonds)
Global News & Market Update
Canada, India appoint new envoys to each other's countries in sign of improving ties:
Canada and India have appointed new high commissioners to each other’s countries, signaling efforts to repair strained diplomatic ties following tensions over the 2023 killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Veteran diplomat Christopher Cooter will represent Canada in India, while Dinesh K. Patnaik will serve as India’s envoy to Canada. The move follows a June meeting between Canadian PM Mark Carney and Indian PM Narendra Modi, and comes amid ongoing trade tensions, including recent U.S. tariff hikes on Indian imports. - Reuters
Hedge funds in Europe gain favour as investors steer away from US, says BNP Paribas:
Investors are shifting hedge fund allocations away from the U.S. toward Europe and Asia for the first time since 2023, according to a BNP Paribas survey of 140 financiers managing $960 billion in assets. Europe led inflows in early 2025, with 37% of investors adding capital, driven by German fiscal stimulus and U.S. policy uncertainty. Credit hedge funds saw the highest inflows ($4.5Billion), followed by multi-manager and equity funds, while smaller funds under $10Billion attracted the most investment. Despite the shift, 73% of hedge fund investors remain U.S.-based. - Reuters
EU proposes tariff removal on US imports to speed up lower US car duties:
The European Commission has proposed removing tariffs on U.S. industrial goods as part of a trade deal with the U.S., which will see U.S. tariffs on EU cars cut from 27.5% to 15% starting August 1. The move follows a July 27 agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to ease tensions and avoid a trade war. - Reuters
US second-quarter GDP revised higher; weekly jobless claims fall:
The U.S. economy grew 3.3% in Q2 2025, boosted by stronger consumer spending and rising business investment in AI and equipment, but tariffs are weighing on growth prospects, with full-year growth expected to slow to 1.5%. Corporate profits rebounded, though major companies face tariff-related costs, and the Fed may cut rates in September as the labor market shows signs of weakening. - Reuters
Indices, Commodities & Currencies
The table below depicts that global markets were mixed: stocks were steady with the Nikkei 225 leading gains, while the VIX fell sharply. Energy mostly declined except for natural gas (+3.2%). Metals and most soft commodities dropped, led by orange juice (-5.8%). Grains were mostly flat, with canola up (+2.3%). The USD weakened slightly, while EUR and NZD gained.
Fixed Income (USA Bonds)
Events
Conclusion
Looking ahead,Nigerian markets may remain resilient as structural reforms, stronger reserves, and investment in domestic gas infrastructure fuel investor confidence. Expect potential momentum in financial and industrial sectors as ISA 2025 drives innovation, digital asset recognition, and foreign participation. Globally, market volatility may persist as investors adjust portfolios amid trade negotiations, U.S. growth revisions, and anticipation of a potential Fed rate cut. Commodities could stay mixed, with natural gas demand and grain prices providing some upside. Overall, near-term caution is warranted, but the medium-term outlook remains constructive for both domestic and international markets.
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