Trading Tuesday - Nigeria’s Growth Momentum Strengthens as Oil Shock Rekindles Global Inflation Risk
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Market Overview
Good evening and welcome to today’s market update, This edition captures a pivotal moment for both Nigeria and the global economy. While Nigeria’s private sector is showing renewed strength amid easing inflation and currency stability, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns worldwide and reshaping investor expectations. Markets are balancing optimism in domestic growth with caution over global volatility.
Nigerian News & Market Update
Nigeria’s private sector rebounds as cost inflation eases to six-year low:
Nigeria’s private sector rebounded in February, with PMI rising to 53.2 as inflation eased and the naira stabilized. Cost pressures hit a six-year low, boosting demand, output, and hiring. - Financeinafrica
US-Iran war bites Nigerians as petrol price hits N950:
Petrol prices in Nigeria have jumped to about N950 per litre after Dangote Refinery raised prices due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Fighting and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted oil supply and pushed crude prices higher. The surge has reversed recent fuel price relief for Nigerian consumers. - Businessday
Subscription for FGN Savings Bonds Opens for March 2026 at 13.9%:
The Debt Management Office has opened March 2026 FGN Savings Bond subscriptions at 12.906% (2-year) and 13.906% (3-year). Units cost N1,000, with investments from N5,000 to N50 million via stockbrokers. The bonds are government-backed and listed on the Nigerian Exchange. - Businesspost
NGX Group appoints new Group Chief Strategy Officer, Ms. Olajumoke Olaniyan:
NGX Group Plc has appointed Ms. Olajumoke Olaniyan as Group Chief Strategy Officer. She will lead strategy and support product expansion, including the exchange’s commercial paper platform. Her appointment strengthens NGX’s push for growth and capital market development. - Nairametrics
Nigeria Sectoral Indices Performance
Recent sectoral indices point to a broadly positive outlook for Nigeria’s stock market, with the NGX 30 gaining 0.55% daily and 25.54% year-to-date. The NGX Oil & Gas sector leads performance, up 4.52% in a day and 66.39% year-to-date, driven by strong energy activity, while Lotus and Premium Board indices are up 50.00% and 41.49% YTD. Banking, insurance, consumer goods, and industrial goods saw short-term weekly dips, but remain positive over the longer term. The NSE All Share Index rose 0.57% daily and 26.35% year-to-date, reinforcing the market’s overall upward momentum.
Fixed Income (FGN Bonds)
Global News & News Update
Euro zone inflation jumps, faces quick hit from surging oil price:
Eurozone inflation rose to 1.9% in February, with core inflation at 2.4%. Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions could push inflation higher in the coming months. Markets expect the European Central Bank to hold rates for now, but risks are building. Reuters
Wall St futures slide as Middle East conflict stokes inflation worries:
U.S. futures slid, led by a 2% drop in the Nasdaq, as Middle East tensions drove oil prices higher, per Reuters. Rising energy costs have dampened rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve and pressured tech stocks. - Reuters
Euro zone factory growth hit 44-month high in February, PMI shows:
Eurozone manufacturing hit a 44‑month high in February as new orders and factory output surged, reports Reuters. Germany led the recovery, while input costs and energy prices rose sharply, pressuring margins. Business confidence climbed to a four‑year high despite continued job losses across the region. - Reuters
Global oil and gas shipping costs surge as Iran vows to close Strait of Hormuz:
Global oil and gas shipping costs have hit record highs as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, reports Reuters. VLCC crude tanker rates to Asia surged above $420,000/day, while LNG freight rates jumped over 40% amid Middle East disruptions. South Korea and other shippers are halting operations in the region, worsening supply bottlenecks and energy price pressures. - Reuters
Indices, Commodities & Currencies
Global stocks tumbled, led by the Nikkei’s 6.3% drop, while the VIX jumped 17.6%, signaling rising volatility. Energy prices surged, with WTI and Brent crude gaining over 5% on strong demand. Metals broadly declined, soft commodities were mixed, and grains were mostly steady with gains in corn and canola.
The US dollar strengthened against major currencies amid safe-haven demand and global uncertainty.
Fixed Income (USA Bonds)
Event
Conclusion
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. On one hand, easing inflation, improving PMI data, and strong equity market performance suggest growing economic resilience. On the other, rising fuel prices could quickly reintroduce cost pressures, potentially slowing the recent momentum in consumer demand and business expansion. Globally, markets are entering a more fragile phase. Elevated oil prices, geopolitical risk, and tightening financial conditions could delay interest rate cuts in major economies. If Middle East tensions escalate further, energy costs may remain elevated, supporting Nigeria’s oil revenue outlook but increasing domestic inflation risks.
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