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Market News
Local
Economist Intelligence Unit Predicts 2.6% Real GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2024 - ThisDay
Analysts at Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) have predicted 2.2 per cent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Nigeria by end of 2023 and 2.6 per cent by 2024. Nigeria’s third quarter (Q3) 2023 GDP rose by 2.5per cent, below the 3.5per cent growth in 2022, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Nigeria’s inflation quickens to 27.33 % for October 2023 - BusinessDay
Headline inflation in Nigeria grew by 27.33 per cent in October compared to a year ago, mainly due to the continued depreciation of the naira and higher food and fuel prices, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Global
Mortgage demand climbs to the highest level in five weeks after interest rates move lower - CNBC
Mortgage demand increased by 2.8% last week, marking the second consecutive week of gains, as homeowners and potential buyers respond to lower mortgage rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 7.61% after previous week drop.
Weekly Investment Watchlist
Market Commentary:
Asia and Australia:
Asian equities closed higher across the region on Wednesday. Hong Kong led the gains with an almost 4% increase, while mainland China markets saw more modest positive returns. Australia closed at a two-month high, South Korea rose almost 2%, and Taiwan’s tech names led gainers. Notable gainers in Southeast Asia included Indonesia and Thailand, with India extending its morning gains.
Japan’s GDP contracted by -2.1% annualized in Q3, following revised +1.1% growth in the previous quarter. The main driver of the contraction was a drag from private inventories. Other segments were generally benign, with capex falling for the second straight quarter. Private consumption, residential investment, and public demand remained little changed. The market’s next leg up for Japanese equities was initially based on business investments, leading to a more cautious stance.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of CNY1.45 trillion in size, notably larger than the consensus of CNY950 billion. With CNY850 billion in expiring funds, the net CNY600 billion injection was the most significant since December 2016. This expanded on the net CNY289 billion added last month, and the MLF rate remained unchanged at 2.5%, as expected.
Further positive data from China included a rise of 4.6% YoY in industrial production in October, slightly ahead of the consensus of 4.5%. Retail sales were up 7.6%, beating the consensus of 7.0%, marking the strongest growth since May. Iron ore futures in Singapore touched $130 a ton for the first time since March on an improving demand outlook for steel in China.
Europe, Middle East, Africa:
European markets traded higher, led by mining companies on China’s demand outlook after positive industrial production data. UK markets outperformed following better-than-expected inflation data.
UK Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.7% YoY (compared to the previous 6.7%), and Core CPI was at 5.8% YoY (versus the previous 6.1%). The largest downward contribution came from housing and household services, with the annual rate at its lowest since records began in 1950. Base effects played a significant role, with last October seeing a big increase in household energy prices.
EU industrial production for September missed expectations, coming in at (1.1%) MoM versus an expected (0.9%). This equates to (6.9%) YoY compared to an expected (6.3%). The last positive YoY value was recorded in February 2023, with a worsening trend since then.
The European Commission published its latest economic forecasts, cutting Eurozone GDP projections in 2023 by 0.2% to 0.6%. The 2024 GDP forecast was trimmed by 0.1% to 1.2%, and growth for 2025 is expected at 1.6%. The report highlighted that high inflation, ECB interest rates, and weaker external demand are taking a heavier toll on Eurozone growth than expected.
The Americas:
A US government shutdown was averted as the House passed a laddered government funding bill pushed by Speaker Johnson to keep government spending at current levels until January and February.
In Mexico, October nominal wages YoY increased by 5.8% compared to the previous 5.1%. As the Banxico has started discussing rate cuts, rising wages contributing to core inflation might impact future discussions.
Target saw a significant rise after a margin-driven Q3 earnings beat and largely in-line Q4 guidance. Conversely, Advanced Auto Parts weakened after missing and slashing FY guidance, though it also announced a new cost-savings program.
The Week Ahead:
Monday:
Tuesday:
U.S. inflation slows to 3.2% in October
Eurozone's GDP declines by 0.1% in Q3
US mortgage applications up 2.8%
Wednesday:
UK producer prices up by 0.1% in October
UK inflation down to 4.6% in October
Core PPI m/m (US)
Core Retail Sales m/m (US)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (US)
Thursday:
Unemployment Claims (US)
Friday:
Retail Sales m/m (UK)
Investment Tip of The Day
Regularly Update Beneficiary Designations: Ensure beneficiary designations on your accounts and assets are up-to-date to reflect your current wishes and avoid legal complications.
Meme of the Day
